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City Safety in Poland: Which Cities Are Most Resilient to Crises
An analysis of the BGK 2025 resilience index for 66 Polish cities: which are best prepared for natural disasters, epidemics, humanitarian crises, and military threats — and what it means when choosing where to live.
When choosing a city to live in, most people think about rent, salaries, and public transport. But there is another dimension that rarely makes it into city guides: how prepared is the city for crises? For Ukrainians who have lived through full-scale war, this is not an abstract question.
In 2025, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) published a detailed resilience study covering 2,477 Polish municipalities. We integrated this data into Mistopolia and can now show the full picture for the 66 largest cities.
What BGK Measures
The study evaluates each city on two dimensions:
- IO — Indeks Odporności (Resilience Index): how well the city can prepare for a crisis, function during it, and recover afterward. Scale 0–100, higher = better.
- IZ — Indeks Zagrożenia (Threat Index): how exposed the city is to risk. Scale 0–100, lower = safer.
Both dimensions are calculated across four threat categories:
| Category | What it includes |
|---|---|
| Natural | Floods, droughts, extreme heat, wildfires |
| Medical | Epidemics, pandemics, healthcare system overload |
| Humanitarian | Mass population influx, refugee crisis, social tensions |
| Military | Cyberattacks, hybrid warfare, armed conflict |
The calculation uses 51 resilience variables and 12 threat indicators — from hospital bed density and drinking water reserves to alert systems and backup power sources.
Top 10 Cities by Resilience
| City | Resilience (IO) | Threat (IZ) | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw | 57.0 | 51.0 | Masovian |
| Poznań | 55.7 | 37.0 | Greater Poland |
| Rzeszów | 55.3 | 24.1 | Subcarpathian |
| Katowice | 55.0 | 34.4 | Silesian |
| Sopot | 58.3 | 42.4 | Pomeranian |
| Kraków | 50.2 | 40.1 | Lesser Poland |
| Krosno | 52.1 | 31.2 | Subcarpathian |
| Bielsko-Biała | 50.7 | 33.3 | Silesian |
| Opole | 52.7 | 48.0 | Opole |
| Wrocław | 50.1 | 39.6 | Lower Silesian |
Sopot leads on resilience (58.3) — a small seaside resort with exceptionally developed infrastructure relative to its population. But comparing it to large cities is misleading: Sopot has only 35,000 residents.
Among genuinely large cities, Warsaw leads (57.0) — but it also carries the highest threat level (51.0): a capital city is always a priority target in any crisis scenario.
Rzeszów: Low Threat + High Resilience
Rzeszów stands out with a unique combination: resilience 55.3 alongside a threat index of just 24.1 — the best balance among all large cities. The city is located in eastern Poland but far from the Belarusian and Russian borders. Well-developed logistics (airport, rail), proximity to Ukraine without excessive risk, and a large Ukrainian community make it a standout choice.
This is why Rzeszów became the informal "base" for tens of thousands of Ukrainians in the first days of the 2022 invasion — and it remains one of the most popular destinations for newcomers from Ukraine.
Understanding the Sub-Indices
The overall resilience index is an average of four components. They can differ significantly, and some combinations are surprising.
| City | Military | Climate | Health | Humanitarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw | 48.7 | 53.4 | 62.0 | 63.7 |
| Poznań | 45.5 | 52.1 | 63.6 | 61.6 |
| Rzeszów | 41.1 | 57.5 | 64.3 | 58.2 |
| Kraków | 46.4 | 48.7 | 52.5 | 53.2 |
| Wrocław | 42.4 | 48.2 | 53.1 | 56.6 |
It is striking that health and humanitarian resilience in most large cities is significantly higher than military resilience. This is logical: Polish cities are well-prepared for medical crises and mass population influx — the 2022 Ukrainian refugee wave put this to the test at an unprecedented scale. Military resilience, by contrast, is a specific capacity that is difficult to build in peacetime.
Cities with Low IO: What to Watch For
| City | Resilience (IO) | Threat (IZ) |
|---|---|---|
| Wałbrzych | 28.0 | 15.2 |
| Bytom | 28.6 | 18.9 |
| Sosnowiec | 34.5 | 30.7 |
| Ruda Śląska | 33.7 | 17.3 |
| Radom | 38.3 | 24.8 |
A low IO does not mean a "dangerous" city in the everyday sense — these places are perfectly normal for daily life. But in a serious crisis, they have fewer resources to respond: smaller reserves, older infrastructure, less developed emergency management systems.
Wałbrzych and Bytom are post-industrial cities in Lower Silesia and Silesia dealing with population decline, aging infrastructure, and constrained municipal budgets — which explains their low scores.
How Mistopolia Uses This Data
Starting May 2026, all these indicators are available in Mistopolia in two ways:
In the city ranking — the BGK resilience index accounts for 15% of the overall score. Cities with better crisis preparedness receive a higher rating, balanced against other criteria: rent, salaries, infrastructure, and air quality.
In the filter — under "City Safety (BGK)" you can set a minimum resilience level:
- Above average — IO ≥ 35: most large cities
- High — IO ≥ 40: cities with good preparedness
- Very high — IO ≥ 50: top 10 out of 66 cities
On each city card all four sub-indices are shown: military, climate, health, and humanitarian resilience. This lets you assess not just the overall number, but the specific strengths and weaknesses of each city.
Resilience Is One Factor Among Many
It is important not to over-weight these numbers. Cities with lower IO scores can still offer significantly cheaper rent, better job markets, or a larger Ukrainian community. Resilience is one of seven criteria in our algorithm, not the only goal.
But for people who know firsthand what a crisis looks like, this indicator carries real meaning. Knowing that your new city is prepared for the unpredictable is part of feeling at home.
Frequently asked questions
- Which city in Poland is the safest?
- According to the BGK 2025 resilience index, the highest overall resilience belongs to Warsaw (57.0), Poznań (55.7), Rzeszów (55.3) and Katowice (55.0). These cities are best prepared simultaneously for natural, medical, humanitarian, and military crises.
- What is the BGK resilience index?
- It is a study by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK, 2025) that assesses 2,477 Polish municipalities across two dimensions: exposure to threats (IZ) and capacity to withstand them (IO). Scores range from 0 to 100 across four threat categories: natural disasters, epidemics, humanitarian events, and military threats.
- Does Mistopolia factor in safety when calculating rankings?
- Yes. Starting May 2026, the Mistopolia ranking includes the BGK resilience index with a weight of 15%. The 'City Safety (BGK)' filter lets you narrow results to cities where resilience exceeds a chosen threshold.
- Is Rzeszów safe for Ukrainians?
- Rzeszów has the lowest threat index among large cities (24.1) and very high resilience (55.3). Located in southeastern Poland but far from the Belarusian and Russian borders, it has a well-developed infrastructure and one of the largest Ukrainian communities in Poland. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians settled here in the first days of the 2022 invasion.